Than you for sharing this Andre Ye! I’m still undecided with the whole bitcoin story (for years.) But I keep giving it a chance every now and then.
I have two worries about halving that come from past experience with financial markets.
- When everyone keeps saying something will happen or most likely to happen, the markets take a different turn. Someone is making money, and someone is losing money on every transaction. When you buy or sell, someone on the other side also thinks that buying or selling is a good idea. You can’t both be right. You can hope that a shark is not on the other side, on most days.
- Whale dumping. Cryptocurrencies are infamous for entities that amassed vast quantities of currency. Stock exchanges were robbed in the past, and individuals may hold hundreds of thousands of BTC. I’m afraid of what will happen if one of those individuals sees this halving as the right dumping moment. BTC is scarce, dumping a 100,000 BTC might be a disaster for the whole market. (In regulated systems, this would be much harder because of anty-dumping laws and central banks.)
I still vary of Bitcoins’ implications in the real world. Crypto has a long way to ensure the world of its meaning. Right now, it feels like a big casino. But I’m doing my best to keep an open mind and HODL for a while.